General
Some Surprises in Last Battleground Polls, but Still a Deadlock
A rise for Kamala Harris in the Sun Belt, and a dip in the Northern swing states.
Kamala Harris in North Carolina, where she leads in the final Times/Siena swing state polls. Credit…Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times
Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump stayed deadlocked to the finish in the final New York Times/Siena College polls of the 2024 presidential election, though there may be a hint she has ticked up in the final stretch.
The race remains essentially even across the seven states likeliest to decide the presidency.
Final NYT/Siena battleground poll results
Arizona: Trump +4
Georgia: Harris +1
Michigan: Trump +1
Nevada: Harris +3
North Carolina: Harris +3
Pennsylvania: Even
Wisconsin: Harris +3
Usually, the final polls point toward a relatively clear favorite, even if that candidate doesn’t go on to win. This will not be one of those elections.
While the overall poll result is largely unchanged since our previous wave of battleground polls, there were some notable shifts. Surprisingly, the longstanding gap between the Northern and Sun Belt battlegrounds narrowed considerably, with Ms. Harris faring better than before among young, Black and Hispanic voters, while Mr. Trump gained among white voters without a degree.
Ms. Harris led Black voters, 84 percent to 11 percent, up from 80-14 in the last wave of Times/Siena state polls. Similarly, she led among Hispanic voters, 56-35, up from 55-41.
