Future
Prediction Markets Tell a Different Story From the Polls
Supporters say the platforms are better at predicting the election. But questions have arisen about recent big bets, as they show a big lead for Donald Trump.
Donald Trump has opened up a big lead in prediction markets, contrasting with polls showing a tighter race.Credit…Michelle Gustafson for The New York Times
More questions for prediction markets
Polls show the U.S. presidential contest as neck and neck. But a popular new way of tracking the race — and betting on it — is telling a different story.
Prediction markets show Donald Trump with a significant lead over Vice President Kamala Harris. But while Wall Streeters and academics are promoting the superiority of such platforms over polls, there are lots of questions about how accurate they really are.
Where things stand on the prediction markets: Kalshi, which recently won court approval to allow election betting in the country for the first time, has the odds of Trump winning at 55 percent, versus 45 percent for Harris. Polymarket has the race at 56 to 44, while PredictIt shows them at 54 to 49.
Contrast those results with most polls: The Times’s national poll tracker shows Harris ahead 50 to 47.
Proponents say prediction markets are better forecasters than polls, since they’re faster at picking up on breaking developments, including debates and news events.
“Political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd,” Thomas Miller, a professor of data science at Northwestern University, told Fortune. A site run by Miller that estimates the results of the Electoral College based on PredictIt contract prices currently forecasts a landslide victory for Trump.
