Lawler wins New York swing seat, lifting Republican House chances

Representative Mike Lawler, one of the nation’s most endangered Republican incumbents, won a second term, according to The Associated Press, holding onto a suburban New York district that is typically tilted toward Democrats.

His victory over Mondaire Jones, a former Democratic congressman, defied mathematical probability, and it buoyed Republicans’ hopes of holding the House majority.

By almost every measure, the race should have favored Democrats. The district, including the affluent suburbs of Westchester County, voted for President Biden by 10 points in 2020. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly 80,000. And Democrats spent nearly $20 million in ads attacking Mr. Lawler as a pro-Trump extremist.

The Republican weathered all of it, including a report by The New York Times that he wore blackface as part of a Michael Jackson Halloween costume in 2006. Mr. Lawler presented himself as an adult in a party with few of them and a check on New York’s Democratic leaders.

“Here in New York, we have seen disastrous consequences from one party rule,” Mr. Lawler said in a victory speech Tuesday night.

He added: “I will continue to be a voice of common sense and stand up against the stupidity that we see at every level of government.”