General
Why Are Democrats Having Such a Hard Time Beating Trump?
The national political environment just isn’t as conducive to a Harris victory as many might imagine.
Since 2008, Democrats have held the White House for 12 of 16 years. Credit…Vanessa Vick for The New York Times
Whatever happens Tuesday, it’s fair to say this campaign has not gone as smoothly as Democrats expected.
In the wake of the midterms, Donald J. Trump appeared to be finished. He may still lose, of course, but he clearly wasn’t “disqualified” — as many expected — by Jan. 6, several criminal indictments or an overturning of Roe v. Wade by his Supreme Court appointees. If voters disqualified any candidate in 2024, it was the sitting president, not the felon who attempted to overturn the last election.
How is Mr. Trump still so competitive? The simplest answer is that the national political environment just isn’t as conducive to a Democratic victory as many might imagine.
Democrats clearly face headwinds in this election. In the last New York Times/Siena College poll, only 40 percent of voters approved of President Biden’s performance, and only 28 percent said the country was heading in the right direction. No party has retained control of the White House when so many Americans were dissatisfied with the country or the president.
The polls suggest the challenge for Democrats runs even deeper. For the first time in decades, Republicans have pulled even or ahead in nationwide party identification. Polls also find Republicans with the an edge on most key issues — with democracy and abortion standing as significant exceptions.
The Democrats’ challenge appears to be part of a broader trend of political struggles for ruling parties across the developed world. Voters appear eager for change when they get the chance. The ruling parties in Britain, Germany, Italy, Australia and most recently Japan all lost power. Mr. Trump himself lost four years ago. France and Canada might well join the list.
