Tuesday Briefing

A trader at the New York Stock Exchange yesterday.Credit…Charly Triballeau/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Economic fears sent world markets into a dive

Stock markets around the world fell yesterday, a day after President Trump refused to rule out the possibility that his trade policies might cause a recession. The S&P 500 slid 2.7 percent, the sharpest daily drop in months. Several retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. also went into effect.

Investors were reacting, in part, to an interview aired on Sunday in which Trump described “a period of transition” for the U.S. economy and suggested more tariffs might come. Prices also plunged for several large tech companies whose stocks have an outsize influence. Markets in Asia were down this morning as the sell-off continued.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said there was a “materially higher risk of a global recession this year because of extreme U.S. policies.” They put the likelihood of a downturn at 40 percent.

Analysis: “The market volatility is much less about the bad news of tariffs and much more about the uncertainty of tariffs, especially uncertainty as to what the policy is, where it is headed, how long it will last and what the end result will be,” said David Bahnsen, the chief investment officer at the Bahnsen Group.

White House memo: Trump demurred when asked whether he expected a recession this year. “I hate to predict things like that,” he said. “There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big.”