The French Connection to Online Bets on Trump

Online prediction markets suggest that there are higher odds for a Donald Trump victory in November.Credit…Kenny Holston/The New York Times

Polymarket speaks

With the presidential race so tight, election watchers have become increasingly fascinated by political prediction markets, especially as the odds implied by wagers on their platforms suggest that Donald Trump is more likely to win the election.

Questions have arisen about a group of four accounts on Polymarket, one of the most popular platforms, and whether they artificially inflated Trump’s odds there. The start-up told DealBook’s Michael de la Merced that it didn’t believe that to be the case, and provided more information about who’s behind the bets.

The company said that one person was responsible, confirming online speculation. It said that a French national with “extensive trading experience and a financial services background” was the whale behind the accounts — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie — dominating a particular bet about who will win the election. The collective size of the trading positions of the accounts was about $28 million as of Thursday morning, according to data on Polymarket.

Polymarket added that it had made contact with the trader as part of an investigation that was being carried out with the help of outside experts. (DealBook understands the platform worked with Nardello & Company, an investigations firm.)

DealBook hasn’t independently verified the details in Polymarket’s statement, though others have concluded that the four accounts are linked.

Polymarket said it had found no evidence of attempted market manipulation. Instead, it said the trader was “taking a directional position based on personal views of the election.” By spreading out relatively small bets on Trump’s odds, the trader’s goal appeared to be buying up the contract but not suddenly pushing up its price. (Bloomberg Opinion’s Matt Levine has made a similar argument.)