Future
The Bull and Bear Case for 2025
The stock market has been on a blistering two-year rally. But Wall Street is warning that a number of factors, including Donald Trump’s policies, could slow or derail that momentum
Market experts think 2025 will be a solid year, but potential turmoil might prevent another huge rally.Credit…Peter Morgan/Associated Press
How high will markets go?
It was an especially festive New Year’s for investors. The S&P 500 soared by 23 percent in 2024 to cap the best two-year run in a quarter-century, a rally that even many of Wall Street’s biggest bulls failed to predict.
This year, market veterans expect to see solid gains — but no repeat, DealBook’s Bernhard Warner reports. Why? There’s uncertainty — about the Trump administration’s economic agenda, inflation and the Fed’s next move on interest rates — amid concerns that investor fervor has made some stocks, especially those tied to the artificial intelligence boom, too pricey.
What experts are predicting: They see the benchmark index climbing to just below 6,700 by the end of 2025, according to FactSet, for a gain of about 13 percent from Tuesday’s close.
If analysts’ models are correct, it would mark a third consecutive year of double-digit annual gains for the S&P 500. The futures market on Thursday points to again at the opening bell.
The bull case for markets goes something like this: Consumers will continue to spend — but not so much that they re-accelerate inflation — and companies will again invest robustly in R.&D., buoying corporate profit and economic growth.
