General
How Resilient Is the Emerging Trump Coalition?
There are reasons to be cautious in interpreting the results of the 2024 election. The absolute numbers are not huge. Roughly six in 10 Hispanics voted for Joe Biden; five in 10 for Kamala Harris. Nine of 10 Black voters chose Biden; eight in 10 for …
There are reasons to be cautious in interpreting the results of the 2024 election. The absolute numbers are not huge. Roughly six in 10 Hispanics voted for Joe Biden; five in 10 for Kamala Harris. Nine of 10 Black voters chose Biden; eight in 10 for Harris. More than four-fifths of Trump’s votes came from white people.
Close examination of the voting, however, reveals disturbing trends for the Democratic Party.
A large 2024 AP VoteCast survey of 110,000 voters shows that the biggest drops in support for Harris — 10 percentage points or more — were all among key minority Democratic constituencies.
The AP poll found that 66 percent of 18-to-44 year old nonwhite voters backed Harris in 2024, 11 points fewer than Biden’s 77 percent in 2020; nonwhite men without college degrees were 11 points less supportive of Harris than they had been of Biden; Black men with and without college degrees were even less supportive of Harris, backing her by 12 points less than Biden. In addition, young voters of all races aged 18 to 29, were 10 points less supportive of Harris than Biden.
From a broader perspective, these trends point toward a political future in which the bottom half of the income distribution, including voters of all races and ethnicities, will be increasingly dominated by Republicans and the top half by Democrats — a reversal of the New Deal coalition.
“The class realignment continues,” Matt Grossmann, a political scientist at Michigan State, wrote in an email:
The shifts have substantially altered the composition of the two parties. According to VoteCast estimates, Grossmann wrote,
Have the cultural values of white progressives become a liability for the Democratic Party?
Grossmann:
Representative Ritchie Torres of New York, a Democrat, in a Nov. 6 post on X, gave his opinion of the far left wing of the contemporary Democratic Party:
Developing trends favorable to the Republicans and threatening to Democrats have evolved over the last three presidential elections in a way that signals strength and durability. It will be difficult for Democrats to reverse these dynamics.
