Drought in the Northeast: The Causes and Consequences

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Credit…Tony Cenicola/The New York Times

To the Editor:

Re “Wildfire Risk Only Growing for Northeast” (front page, Nov. 21):

This article leaves the impression that the drought in the Northeast this fall, which drove record wildfires, was caused by human-driven climate change due to a general increase in extreme events. This, however, does not appear to be the case for this drought.

The cause was a lack of precipitation for two months related to a persistent high pressure center over the Central or Eastern U.S. the whole time. I have studied droughts for decades, and to me this appears to be coming about from random atmospheric circulation variability — basically an unfortunate run of weather.

The Northeast has actually been getting wetter for decades now and especially in the fall. This dry period appears as a shocking drop in precipitation amid a trend to wetter conditions. Climate models also predict that the Northeast should be getting more precipitation, not less, as a consequence of rising greenhouse gases.

It is true that climate warming will dry the leaves, soils and vegetation, and that has likely played a role in this fall’s fires. However, there is no evidence based on observations or models that dry falls like this are becoming more common because of climate change. Sometimes it’s just the weather!

Richard Seager
Palisades, N.Y.
The writer is a climate scientist at the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University who studies droughts in North America and across the globe.

To the Editor:

Drought in the Northeast and brush fires in Manhattan are a disturbing preview of life on a burning planet — and a clear sign we aren’t moving nearly fast enough to avert fossil-fueled climate chaos.