Future
Deal Makers See a Rebound in 2025 as Trump Returns to Power
It was another down year for mergers and acquisitions, but Wall Street is optimistic that the lengthy lull is coming to an end.
Traders and financial professionals working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.Credit…Karsten Moran for The New York Times
The year (and year ahead) in deals
By most measures, 2024 was a year of fits and starts for M.&A., especially compared with a year ago. And I.P.O.s were a flat-out dud.
For deal makers, there are plenty of reasons to hope that 2025 will be better, including a potentially more business-friendly White House and Congress, investor ebullience and a relatively strong American economy. But there are also factors that may keep corporate deal makers on edge.
The year was mixed for deal making. Heading into 2024, bankers and lawyers said that the overall mood in corporate boardrooms was cautious, given geopolitical uncertainties and questions about the vitality of the global economy.
Deal activity ultimately reflected that. While the dollar volume of deals announced in 2024 as of Friday rose 9 percent year-on-year, to $3 trillion, the number of transactions fell 18 percent, to 46,534, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group. That’s the lowest level since 2015 and worse than 2020, which was afflicted by the coronavirus pandemic.
While a handful of large corporate buyers were willing to take a chance on M.&A., would-be acquirers more broadly were feeling cautious. The biggest takeover bids announced in 2024 included:
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Alimentation Couche-Tard’s $58 billion offer for Seven & i Holdings, the Japanese operator of the 7-Eleven chain;
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Capital One’s $35 billion deal to buy Discover Financial Services;
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Mars’s roughly $36 billion acquisition of Kellanova, the Pop-Tarts maker.
(A potential point of comfort is that the biggest transactions covered a broad area of industries, including retail, financial services and technology.)
