One Thing About Trump I Am Not Worried About

Senator JD Vance of Ohio finally has an answer for journalists who ask him who won the 2020 presidential election.

Donald Trump.

Here is how my newsroom colleagues captured the scene:

I am not going to explain, again, the sheer absurdity of Vance’s views, but his comment did get me thinking about one of the many elements of this election that have produced real anxiety in liberals and other Democratic voters: the possibility that Trump will try to steal the election if he loses.

There is no question that both Trump and his allies will denounce the results if, on Nov. 6, the day after the election, it appears that he has lost. Hell, there is no question that Trump will immediately declare victory on Election Day and try to pressure election officials in swing states where he is leading to stop counting the votes. There is also no question that if he does lose, he will try to prevent individual states from certifying their electoral votes in hopes of triggering a contingent election in the House of Representatives.

All of this has liberals understandably scared. But here’s the thing. The best outcome for Trump is still just to win the election. His ability to reverse a loss is limited to his ability to inspire others to commit crimes on his behalf. Remember, the Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022 clarified that congressional counting of the electoral votes is a formality and has no real bearing on the outcome. The Jan. 6 method is off the table. More important, Trump is not the president. He has no legal authority. If he loses, he’ll be just another private citizen, urging other private citizens to commit state and federal crimes on his behalf.

Some may do so on account of his cult of personality. But many others won’t. It is one thing to break the law for the elected representative of the entire country. It is something else entirely to break the law for someone who is just a guy. And if Trump suffers a decisive defeat, civil society will almost certainly coalesce around Kamala Harris, making any attempt to disrupt the results next to impossible.

This is not to say that it is silly to worry about what comes next if Harris wins; there is, for instance, the real chance of post-election violence. But the fact of the matter is that Trump has a better chance of winning outright than he does of overturning a defeat.