Kamala Harris Should Think Twice About Touting This Economy

The unemployment rate is low, but it’s a tough time to find a job. I know, that sounds contradictory, but I can show that it’s true. And it’s not great for Vice President Kamala Harris, who is trying to chip away at many voters’ faulty perception that she and her boss haven’t been as good on the economy as former President Donald Trump was.

First, the good news. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that the unemployment rate fell a tenth of a percentage point to 4.1 percent in September, which was unexpectedly low — in the bottom sixth of all monthly jobless rates going back to 1990.

There was also a bigger-than-expected increase in the number of payroll jobs in September, up 254,000. That was likewise a sign of strength (although there’s a good chance we’ll see the number revised lower, as I’ll explain).

Why, then, would it be hard to find a job? Because it’s not heavy hiring that’s keeping the unemployment rate down. It’s been more a lack of firing. So if you have a job, you’re feeling good. If you’re looking, not so much.

According to Friday’s report, there were 2.01 million people who went from unemployed to employed between August and September. But there were more — 3.45 million — who went from unemployed to (still) unemployed.

Three days before issuing the jobs report for September, the bureau put out the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for August. True, it’s older data, but it has a wealth of detail that’s missing from the main employment report.